Oilers and Hurricanes go from top to slop

Back at the end of February I wrote a post about Parity in the NHL and how the Carolina Hurricanes and the Edmonton Oilers are making a case for it this season.

Well lo and behold! I make a prediction that actually comes through. The Hurricanes and Oilers will miss the playoffs this year marking the first time in the history of the NHL that the two teams who contended for the Stanley Cup both missed the playoffs the following year.

In fact, if I remember this correctly, the last Stanley Cup winning team that missed the playoff's the following year was the 1996 New Jersey Devils. (Okay, so I looked it up on the 'net to make sure I was right).

The Oilers have been pretty much horrible all year long but considering that they were a last minute add-in to the playoffs last year AND the first 8 seed to ever make it to the Stanley Cup final it is not too surprising that they ended up missing the dance this year.

The Carolina Hurricanes came out of the gate strong this season and for a time were one of the highest scoring teams in the league. In fact, according to ESPN they still rank 12th in the League in team scoring posting an average of 2.94 goals per game. The big problem is on the other side of the coin. The 'Canes goaltending has been erratic to say the least and they average 3.00 goals against per game. Anyone with grade 3 math can see the problem that disparity causes.

As we enter a new era in the NHL I wonder if this type of thing will happen more often?

NHL East: Leafs, Hurricanes, Islanders miss playoffs

Earlier this week I wrote a post about the tight Eastern conference playoff race that broke down as follows:

3 playoff spots + 5 points + 6 teams = priceless

Well 4 days later, and 6 out of the 39 games remaining for these teams, the race has become tighter than a devout nun.

3 playoff spots + 3 points + 6 teams = even more priceless

In fact you could argue that there are now 8 teams fighting for 4 playoff spots if you include Atlanta, which could conceivably be caught by Tampa Bay, and Florida who are only 6 points out of that final playoff spot.

As of today there are 31 games remaining for the 6 teams, 14 of which are head to head matchups between the contenders for the final three spots.

Rangers - 87 points in 6th - 5 remaining, 3 head to head, a possible 16 point swing
Lightning - 86 points in 7th - 5 remaining, 2 head to head, a possible 12 point swing
Canadiens - 86 points in 8th - 5 remaining, 2 head to head, a possible 12 point swing
Maple Leafs - 85 points in 9th - 5 remaining, 3 head to head, a possible 16 point swing
Islanders - 84 points in 10th - 6 remaining, 2 head to head, a possible 14 point swing
Hurricanes - 84 points in 11th - 5 remaining, 2 head to head, a possible 12 point swing

Looking over the above numbers it looks like the teams with the best chance to make the playoffs are the Rangers, Lightning and Leafs if you only look at the numbers.

If I had to predict the outcome of the remaining games in the East they would end up as follows (assuming that Rick DiPietro is gone for the remainder of the regular season!):
Rangers - 3 wins (PHI, NYI, MON), 1 loss (PIT), 1 IT/SO Win (TOR) for 8 points
Lightning - 3 wins (CAR, WAS, FLA), 2 losses (CAR, ATL) for 6 points
Canadiens - 2 wins ( BOS, TOR) , 3 losses (OTT, BUF, NYR) for 4 points
Maple Leafs - 2 wins (PHI, NYI), 2 losses (PIT, MON), 1 OT/SO loss (NYR) for 5 points
Islanders - 1 win (PHI), 5 losses (BUF, OTT,NYR,TOR,NJD) for 2 points
Hurricanes - 3 wins (FLA,FLA,TAM), 2 losses (TAM, ATL) for 6 points

This leaves the standings as follows:
6 - Rangers - 95 points
7 - Lightning - 92 points
8 - Canadiens - 90 points
8 - Maple Leafs - 90 points
8 - Hurricanes - 90 points
9 - Islanders - 86 points

Giving us a threeway tie for 8th place. The tiebreaker is number of games won putting Montreal in 8th (and the playoffs), Carolina in 9th and Toronto in 10th.

Interesting no?

As pivotal as the head to head matchups will be in the final days of the season the real clincher is likely to be games against Florida, Washington, Boston and Philadelphia. Each of the teams in the race for the East have at least 1 game against these weaker teams. Missing out on those two points will decide the season for more than 1 team in this years playoff race.

3 Spots open in the East for 6 teams

This week in the NHL: The Eastern conference playoff race is tightening up as 6 teams are within 5 points of the final three playoff spots in the East. The Rangers, Lightning and Montreal have 6 games remaining while the Hurricanes, Islanders and Leafs each have 7 games remaining. It should be an interesting week in the NHL as these teams face each other frequently over the remainder of the season.

The Rangers play 4 of their remaining 6 games against the 6 teams in the playoff race
The Lightning play only 2 of their remaining 6 games against teams in the race
The Hurricanes play 3 of their remaining 7 games against teams in the race
The Islanders play only 2 of their remaining 7 games against teams in the race
The Canadiens play 3 of their remaining 6 games against teams in the race
The Maple Leafs play 4 of their remaining 7 games against teams in the race

Looking at the schedule we can see that the Rangers and the Maple Leafs hold their playoff destiny in their hands. Winning the remaining games against their conference rivals could propel these two teams into the playoffs. The Rangers are perhaps the hottest team in the NHL right now and have won 5 straight. The Leafs on the other hand haven't been able to decide which type of team they are, a contender or a pretender. The coming weeks will show us which.